Rush: Science and Technology in our Acceleration Age?identifies the most critical rushing (or accelerating) trends in science and technology and the innovations that will be spawned from these trends.
One impactful trend highlighted in Rush is the accelerating growth of cloud computing
?(explained below). ?Enjoy the following beta (not yet edited) excerpt:
In August of 2012, NASA?s Mars rover ?Curiosity? completed an improbable journey, travelling over 300 million miles across our solar system and safely descending onto the Mars surface.? Curiosity is not the first rover to successfully land on Mars, but at almost 2,000 pounds, Curiosity carries a payload 10 times as large as those of previous Mars rovers.?
Curiosity?s payload includes several high resolution cameras and mechanisms for grabbing rocks and soil and performing sophisticated analyses.? Curiosity even carries a laser beam capable of incinerating the surface of rocks or soil from up to 30 feet away and analyzing the vapors produced from incineration.
Because Curiosity?s journey is a one-way trip (it will not be returning to Earth), the rover must beam all the images and analyses back to Earth. ?Instead of arriving directly to computers at NASA, Curiosity?s data is being processed, stored, and transmitted to hundreds of thousands of viewers throughout the world by computers owned by a surprising source- the online retail giant Amazon.
Amazon Web Services (a branch of Amazon.com) is the world leader in cloud computing.? Cloud computing allows individuals and organizations (such as NASA) to access powerful computers and software available through cloud providers (such as Amazon) over a network (ie the internet) instead of purchasing these expensive resources themselves.? A NASA blog notes that ?NASA?uses Amazon Web Services for cloud based enterprise infrastructure.? This cloud based model supports a wide variety of web applications and sites?while providing almost a million dollars in cost savings each year.?
The above graph illustrates the accelerating growth of Amazon?s cloud computing services.? Amazon?s ?S3? service (which stands for ?Simple Storage Service?) is an online storage service that allows users to store ?objects,? or files up to 5 terabytes in size, through Amazon?s Web Service.[i]?
The number of ?objects? stored in Amazon?s Web Service servers is increasing substantially.? AWS reportedly adds as much computing power as was needed to run the entire Amazon.com in 2000 (when Amazon was a multi-billion dollar business) to their cloud service every day.? All of this capability is stored in servers housed in huge warehouses throughout the world.? The largest warehouses can reach 700,000 square feet, or the area of 16 football fields.? All of the facilities are interconnected through the cloud.
Cloud computing is an accelerating trend that will significantly alter our lives at home and at work in the near future.?
What exactly is cloud computing?
Cloud computing is the delivery of computing capabilty as a utility or a service rather than a product.? Many companies today purchase their own powerful computers, software, and servers.[ii]? However, in the future more companies will access centralized ?server farms? (or warehouses full of powerful computers and software) through just about any computing device connected to the internet.? Companies will use these ?server farms? like a utility, paying perhaps a few pennies for every hour the servers and associated software are used.? No longer will small companies find it beneficial or economical to invest in their own computing products- they?ll merely access these products as service through the internet.
Cloud computing can be compared to electrical power generation.? In the late 1800s and early 1900s, it was common for large factories and hospitals to generate their own electrical power via small on-site power stations.? Then eventually power generation become more consolidated and centralized so that by 1970 over 90% of electricity was generated by ?electric utilities? (or companies providing electricity to numerous customers).? Therefore, over time electricity generation became more centralized and was accessed as a utility.[iii]? In a similar fashion, computing infrastructure will increasingly become centralized into clouds. [iv]
Companies Pioneering Cloud Computing
Amazon.com, the world?s largest electronic commerce site (or online retailer) wants you to run your business with their cloud computing capability.? The company has spent in excess of $2 billion dollars over the past decade to perfect their computing capabilities, and they are now offering to rent this capability to you for pennies an hour.? Despite this miniscule cost, Amazon anticipates demand being so high for their cloud computing services that it could one day generate revenue surpassing its retail sales (note: Amazon.com generated over $48 billion in revenue in 2011 mostly from retail sales).]?
Already AWS reports hundreds of thousands of customers utilize their cloud computing services which includes data processing, disk storage, and database software.? Some of Amazon?s more well-known clients include NASA, Netflix, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, and Adobe Systems.
Perhaps most intriguingly, Amazon Web Services offers access to the same unique computing capabilities used in developing the Amazon.com storefront.? Customers can even utilize Amazon?s logistical and supply chain software to manage their own businesses like Amazon?s.
Already AWS reports hundreds of thousands of customers utilize their cloud computing services which includes data processing, disk storage, and database software.? Some of Amazon?s more well-known clients include NASA, Netflix, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, and Adobe Systems.
Perhaps most intriguingly, Amazon Web Services offers access to the same unique computing capabilities used in developing the Amazon.com storefront.? Customers can even utilize Amazon?s logistical and supply chain software to manage their own businesses like Amazon?s.??
Microsoft and IBM have also jumped into cloud computing..? IBM is striving to appeal more to startups allowing them to access developer tools and software necessary to build Web applications.? Microsoft?s cloud service is called Azure, and its software allows users to build applications like those used on Windows-powered smartphones.?
Steve Jobs, co-founder of Apple Inc., spoke at length about cloud computing during one of his final public appearances.? Jobs hopes cloud computing will soon revolutionize how we consume media.? Apple?s iCloud is more centered upon radically changing how consumers consume media.? Components of the iCloud are free and available to store digital content like music, books, photos, and more- all of which can be accessed on Apple?s iOS devices anywhere connected to the internet.[v]? Before his passing, Steve Jobs said ?We?re going to demote the PC and Mac to just be a device.? We?re going to move your hub, the center of your digital life, into the cloud.?? What Jobs is literally saying is that many of your music, e-book, photos, and other files will reside on one of Apple?s servers somewhere in the world.? Apple customers can then access these files from any and multiple iOS devices (ie the iPhone, iPad, iPod, Apple TV, etc) using internet connected to these servers.? In this way, your files will exist not inside your device but ?within the cloud.??????
Even before Jobs? passing, Apple planned on releasing an advanced television that would use the cloud but still be easy to use.? Talking with his biographer Walter Isaacson, Jobs reportedly said ?I?d like to create an integrated television set that is completely easy to use.? It would be seamlessly synced with all of your devices and with the iCloud.? It will have the simplest user interface you could imagine.? I finally cracked it.?
According to Jobs? biographer, Jobs has long intended to create a unified environment for sharing media across multiple Apple devices.? Consider the following excerpt from Jobs? biography:
?We need to be the company that manages your relationship with the cloud- streams your music and videos from the cloud, stores your pictures and information, and maybe even your medical data.? Apple as the first to have the insight about your computer becoming a digital hub.? So we wrote all of these apps- iPhoto, iMovie, iTunes- and tied in our devices, like the iPod and iPhone and iPad, and it?s worked brilliantly.? But over the next few years, the hub is going to move from your computer into the cloud.? So it?s the same digital hub strategy, but the hub?s in a different place.? It means you will always have access to your content and you won?t have to sync.?
?According to an active Apple stockholder who attends Apple shareholder meetings (and various internet rumors), Apple could announce the next platform for accessing the cloud in the fall of 2012- a iOS based television.
Reportedly the television would allow users to not only watch television and videos, but also play games, run apps, and let you do many things you would with a computer like Tweeting about a video you?re watching on YouTube.? And? in line with Jobs? vision, the iOS based television would sync with other Apple devices like the iPhone, iPad, and Macbook.? In this way, many consumers may soon be consuming all of their media through Apple products.????
The Cloud?s about to Rain a Revolution
As the above analysis of Apple Computers demonstrates, cloud computing could revolutionize the way in which we consume media.? In sum, cloud computing will allow all of our personal data (including emails, photographs, movies, songs, documents, etc. etc.) to be accessed from virtually any computing device with internet access (and the number of devices with internet access will increase in upcoming years).? Furthermore, you?ll be able to readily share this data with family and friends almost instantly.? This is the future of ?cloud computing? at home.?
As radical as this may sound, many of us already utilize many of these capabilities.? Our email accounts (like hotmail, gmail, etc) are readily accessed by most internet-connected devices, we can store and access documents via Google Docs, and we readily share the above data via social media sites for example.????
However, cloud computing will bring about truly radical changes to our lives.? Many of us may be familiar with the iPhone personality Siri.? Ask Siri, ?Remind me to call my wife at 3 pm this afternoon? and you?ll receive a friendly reminder to do so from Siri.? Many of us have even discovered Siri?s personality and sense of humor.? Ask Siri the meaning of life, and she might reply ?To think about questions like this.?? Perhaps somewhat disturbingly, if you tell Siri you need to dump a body, she?ll locate and suggest nearby mines, reservoirs, and quarries.
In the future, our interactions with computers will become even further seamless.? In addition to keyboards and mice, we?ll communicate with our computers through voice and hand gestures.? Eventually, we may be within communicable distance of a compute personality almost constantly as computing and computer personalities become much more commonplace and even hidden from sight (embedded in handheld devices, in walls, in our cars, etc.).? Eventually these personalities may come to know us and anticipate our behaviors more accurately than even our most intimate friends.?
In the future, companies will vie for this knowledge.? As more companies overcome their present myopia (or obsession on short-term profits at the expense of long-term viability[vi]), cloud computing will become an avenue for companies to pursue long-term relationships with customers.? John Hagel, co-chairman of the Deloitte Center for the Edge (a leading Silicon-Valley based research center) notes that ?companies will be less interested in the immediate sale than in providing advice in order to develop a relationship.?? In other words, companies will utilize cloud computing capabilities to develop long-term relationships with its customers.?
For example, companies will be able to monitor our online habits and offer timely suggestions on products, many of which we were unaware of.? This is similar to Amazon.com which suggests additional purchases based upon our past browsing and purchasing history.? Hagel notes that ?the next level will be companies that make those suggestions based on not just your activity on one specific site, but across a range of places- what you watch on your web TV, on YouTube and other sites?.If a company can capture all my online activity, as it occurs in real time, it may have an integrated view of me as an individual and suggest things I didn?t even know I wanted to look at.?? In this way, future advertising may become more subtle but paradoxically more effective as consumers are less resistant to these commercials and even view the commercial services as helpful.[vii]???
Also, expect capable and nuanced computer personalities (ie Apple's Siri) communicating to you from multiple devices (although perhaps companies like Apple will control a monopoly on your computing experiences and sync Siri to all your electronic devices).? In the future, these computer personalities will become perhaps disturbingly intuitive about you.? Imagine a personality that will be capable of monitoring and predicting your behavior and offering friendly suggestions.?
Recently, researchers found that a computer program based upon cognitive-behavioral therapy techniques was effective in helping to treat depression and anxiety in adolescents aged 12 to 19.? In the future, your computer companion may help diagnose mood disturbances and even help cope with these disturbances.?
Already many futurists anticipate that cloud computing will allow for a more persistent and reliable monitoring of one?s health.? For example, the cloud could allow health practitioners to monitor patients with sleep apnea or heart ailments via monitoring devices connected to the cloud.????
The Cloud at Work
Currently many businesses are coming to the realization that managing powerful computers, complex servers, and intricate networks at a company level is not cost-effective.? As the price of transmitting data and information drops, more companies will begin to outsource at least part of their computing needs to cloud computing providers like Amazon.???????
Current IT (information technology) departments are often bogged down with simply trying to keep existing computers running.? According to a standard 70/30 rule, corporate IT departments often spend 70% of their time keeping computers and hardware running and 30% of their time implementing new technologies.? Cloud computing will cut down on these constraints drastically, incorporating cutting-edge technologies and maintaining computers and hardware en masse in server farms.? Such reorganization will undoubtedly save many companies much money.? MarginPro, a business in North Carolina, analyzes almost $1 billion worth of loans every month using computing sources through the cloud.? For every $10 million in revenue the company brings in, they pay on average only $1,500 in cloud fees to Microsoft.
Finally, perhaps not surprisingly, Information Technology (IT) costs for individual companies will decline.? Without the need to maintain and improve powerful computers, software, and servers, companies will save money in technology-associated costs.
Another easily appreciated way in which companies will benefit from cloud computing is that laptop security breaches will decline.? A surprising number of laptops are lost every week at airports throughout the world (one estimate is that over 10,000 laptops are forgotten or stolen every week), exposing potentially important information.? In the future (and already) many people are saving files to ?the cloud? (or more specifically to a remote server) where the files can be accessed from any computer accessing the internet.? In this way, a stolen laptop will be not as significant of a security breach as in the past.?
Companies offering cloud services, like Microsoft, propose that the cloud encourages greater innovation.? Instead of investing substantially in new technologies and new software, companies can ?rent? or use new technologies and software over the cloud at a drastically reduced prices.?? Therefore, companies can ?beta? test technologies and software before investing heavily in them.? If a technology works, the company can invest futrher.? If it doesn?t, the company has wasted significant funds in acquiring the technology.? Tony Scott, CIO of Microsoft, notes that ?in the cloud there?s no penalty for guessing wrong.?
Borrowing a metaphor from Pulitzer prize winning author Tom Friedman, cloud computing will flatten (or level) the playing field for companies of all sizes.? No longer will those companies large enough to afford the most powerful computing platforms dominate a market- smaller companies will access similar platforms through the cloud.? Or, as Friedman notes:
Within a few years, virtually everyone on the planet will have the tools and network connections to participate in the hyper-connected hyper-connected flat world. As that happens, all of these instruments of innovation and connectivity will become what electricity is for most of the world?.One is analytics. Once everyone is connected, your prosperity will depend on how well you or your company or country can ?analyze and apply? all the data pouring through these networks to optimize your ability to provide better health care, education, e-commerce, innovation, customer service, and government services to everyone on the network. After all, the tools your company uses to perform all of this analysis will be sitting there in the cloud for every other company to use as well.
Or as Alan Cohen, the Vice-President of Mobility Solutions at Cisco, notes: ?The cloud is like this huge shared factory, where anyone who wants to produce something can come and rent the tools for almost nothing.?? __ Jassy, head of Amazon Web Services agrees, ?This completely levels the playing field.?
Already niche retailers like Etsy.com, an online marketplace to purchase hand-made products, are using Amazon?s computers and software to analyze a billion monthly views to its website.? Like the monster online retail giant Amazon, Etsy.com can analyze products and customers (and even customers? social media profiles like Facebook profiles) to create appropriate product recommendations.? Before cloud computing, smaller websites like Etsy wouldn?t be able to afford such in-depth analysis and marketing.
In the future, small and medium businesses will be able to easily ?go global? or conduct business around the world.? In the past, only the largest corporations had the budgets to transcend geography and national borders.? But with access to cloud computing and world-class computing capabilities, small and medium sized businesses will overcome these constraints to conduct business globally.
Similarly, developing nations that currently lack adequate information technology infrastructures (nations like China and India) will spawn companies capable of competing with technologically-advanced developed nations (like the United States) thanks to access to computing capabilities through cloud computing.
Global innovation will thrive under cloud computing.? First, even the smallest startups will be able to conduct complex simulations and data analysis to determine things like consumer demand for a product and ideal pricing for that product.? Addtionally, as mentioned above, companies will be able to ?rent? computing capabilities and experiment with different business models without having to invest heavily in these computing capabilities.?
As employees, we?ll be able to utilize cloud computing to make more intelligent decisions.? For example, with access to a seemingly unlimited amount of data and the most powerful processors, we?ll be able to conduct original research into market demands and raw material availability.? In this way, we can intelligently and seamlessly ensure that our company?s acquisitions of materials matches consumer demand for products utilizing these materials.?
?In a similar fashion, competition will become more fierce.? Once a company has identified a unique and successful business model, competitors can quickly gain access to the same computing capabilities and try to replicate and improve this model.? As author Tom Friedman points out, if cloud computing is akin to an open factory where anyone can rent equipment, what?s to prevent you from creating the same (or similar) widget your neighbor (or anyone for that matter) creates in the factory and sells for a large profit?
In the future where companies will have access to the similar computing capabilities via cloud computing, once one company creates a successful product or business model, competitors will quickly pop up.? In fact, entire companies or even industries may be created for the sole purpose of indentifying successful businesses and replicating or improving their business model (I anticipate a large venture capitalist[viii] market for such ?copy-cat? endeavors).? Competition will be fierce.
In sum, those companies unwilling or unable to leverage the increasing capabilities of cloud computing will be put at a disadvantage (just any company unable to adapt and leverage helpful technologies are put at a distinct disadvantage).?????
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The previous was a free excerpt from?Rush: Science and Technology in our Acceleration Age. ?Rush?identifies the most critical rushing (or accelerating) trends in science and technology and the innovations that will be spawned from these trends.
[i] There are several advantages to storing files on cloud services like Amazon?s S3.? First the servers (or computers storing the data) are typically much more reliable and less costly to maintain via a large cloud service than servers purchased individually by small entities (ie small companies or individuals).? Second, Amazon?s S3 services offer virtually limitless memory- a single ?object? 5 terabytes large possesses as much memory as 5,000 encyclopedias.??
[ii] A server is a central computer that can be accessed by multiple workers in a company.? Servers will often store files or information that needs to be accessed and updated by numerous individuals who can access the server from their own individual computers.???
[iii] Although this trend is slowly reversing.? Decreased costs of renewable energy sources may further decentralize electrical power generation.???
[iv] The actual term ?cloud computing? originated when computer network analysts would diagram intricate connections among computers in a network.? Once the internet came along and computers became connected in countless ways, networks analysts would simply draw a cloud denoting that individual computers and networks were connected in an unknown way.? Just as a ?cloud? in the sky is diffuse and capable of hiding things, a ?cloud network? is a diffuse network of computers connected in a hidden fashion.? Today, the cloud is likely literally countless servers residing in a warehouse just about anywhere in the world (these warehouses are known as ?server farms.?)?
[v] iOS used to stand for iPhone Operating System.? Today the iOS powers many of Apple?s devices.?
[vi] Consider the financial institutions Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Morgan Stanley.?? Their myopic pursuit of short-term bonuses sabotaged their customer?s long-term investments- such myopia led to the collapse of the banking industry.
[vii] Blaring and intrusive commercials beware.?
[viii] Venture capitalists (VC) are individuals or groups of individuals funding high-risk but potentially high-growth startups.? IF the company becomes successful, the VCs typically collect a large portion of the profits.?
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